In 1980, the US government developed daily dietary guidelines for adults. According to the CDC, obesity in the US more than doubled over the next 28 years, in 2008- from 15% to 34 % of the adult population. Child obesity grew even more, from 5 to 17 %. The Lancet published a report last week showing that 42 % of American adult females and 34 % of males are now obese; nearly 75% of American adults are overweight!

In fact, one might even wonder what these daily dietary guidelines in the US have accomplished in 45 years.  President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Robert F. Kennedy Jr., to head the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), who might well ask the same question.

Kennedy Jr (son of late Robert Kennedy Jr.) is a controversial nominee for people who believe in science because of his strong vocal opposition to Covid vaccines. He’s also controversial because of his support for abortion. But no one doubts his commitment to make Americans healthier (or less unhealthy, if we look at the above statistics dished out by Wine-Searcher.

For this very reason, he might end up saving the US wine industry from a devastating blow the Biden administration has been trying to level.

RFK Jr is a recovering alcoholic and no supporter of alcohol. According to this Article, he became addicted to heroin at age 15 while his brother David died of an overdose. He even goes to Alcoholics Anonymous meetings regularly.

Alcohol is an afterthought in the US daily dietary guidelines, so much so that the Biden administration handed off the task of deciding how much Americans can safely drink to ICCPUD, the Interagency Coordinating Committee on the Prevention of Underage Drinking.

But if the US government believes that even one drink a day is dangerous, it will be a devastating blow to the already-reeling wine industry. It would be the antithesis of the game changing ‘60 Minutes’ broadcast in November 1991 that postulated that red wine in moderation was good for heart health and it set a global trend to drinking wine for better health.

It is not easy to shake off bureaucracy in the US as well. But it is possible JFK Jr might be able to succeed. According to a bipartisan and well-connected source in Washington DC known for its humongous lobby groups, the daily dietary guidelines is “a 45-year failed public health policy”, according to the Article. With Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy assigned to improve the government efficiency (through DOGE- Department of Government Efficiency), it is likely that this Committee may concur on the less-than-useful stand of these ‘Guidelines’ in the last 45 years and they may not even to tinker with the guidelines which seem to be more realistic in encouraging ‘Drinking in Moderation’. Kennedy Jr. might go along with this perception.

Since the Dietary Guidelines for Americans were last updated in 2020, research (more like an avalanche of motivated studies ) has no-doubt emerged suggesting that even drinking moderately could be associated with health issues and cancer but with little evidence suggesting fool-proof scientific support.  

The views of the current political head will have a role to play. Alcohol has been under attack by the American President Biden who is a teetotaler. A different teetotaler President Elect Trump might appoint and depend on RFK Jr., a guy who is a recovering addict and who might like to see restrained but delicious drinking, enhancing the flavours of food.

There is the ongoing debate between the wine drinkers in moderation and the neo prohibitionists who claim that even a sip of the moniker might cause cancer. It is likely then that the US Dietary Guidelines may not see any change in 2025 and the wine industry might be saved from the calamity it is facing worldwide.

Subhash Arora